Post 3 - Is The Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam Harming Egypt & Sudan?

The GERD

In September 2023, the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) marked a significant milestone with the completion of its reservoir filling. The journey was filled with hurdles; the podcast below will provide insights into why the GERD construction was sentimentally charged and perceived as an existential threat despite the GERD's potential benefits (Kahsay et al., 2015).

 

The GERD aids Sudan by filtering out 100 million cubic meters of silt, addressing the underdeveloped drainage system in that region (Assefa, 2020). Supporting this, Woldeyohannes et al. (2017) assert that the dam’s sedimentary management reduces flooding by approximately 40 km, safeguarding 300,000 people's livelihood in that region as of 19 September 2020. Econometric models suggest that the dam will contribute to Sudan’s prosperity over the period 2020–2060 through reduced economic damage, increased crop output and value-added across the economy by $27 billion - $29 billion, compared to a baseline without GERD (Siddig et al.,2020). 

However, Dr. Heggy, a prominent figure among Egyptian youth, portrayed GERD as catastrophic in “Saving The Nile” - an Al-Jazeera Interactive Scientific Report acknowledged among the World’s Top 10 by the Global Investigative Journalistic Network. The report claimed that “50% of [Egypt’s] water share and 67% of the agricultural area could be lost” if the dam is filled in 3 years (Fig1). In a follow-up research, Heggy et al. (2021) contended that the 3-year filling would cost a $51 billion economic loss, 4.74 million jobs lost in Egypt, and a projected reduction in GDP per capita from $2,815 to $2,633 in 2022, from $2,890 to $2,703 in 2033, and from $2,968 to $2,777 in 2024.

Fig1: GERD filling's Externality Projections

Heggy's projected negative externalities (Fig1) didn't occur (Fig2), despite Ethiopia filling the GERD within 3 years. This outcome was attributed to the abnormally heavy rainfall and runoff in that period that challenged researchers' (Wheeler et al., 2022; Eladawy et al., 2022)  assessments, who deemed the filling unrealistic.

Plus, given that GERD is built for ‘hydropower' expansion, not ‘irrigation,’ it means minimal water withdrawal, evidenced by Egypt's consistent water supply above 55 billion km3 annually from 2002 to 2022. Therefore, the agriculture, irrigation and fishing sectors' contribution to nominal GDP (Fig2) continuously rises, refuting Heggy's economic loss claim.

Fig2. GDP Contributions from Agriculture, Irrigation and Fishing in Egypt (2002-2023) with fluctuations reflecting rainy seasons

Sudan's recent shift in stance in GERD post-PM Abiy's visit isolated Egypt. Plus, record-high inflation (34-35% in 2023) compounds Egypt's economic challenges, diminishing its riparian hegemony. Additionally, while GERD's higher altitude geographically means lower temperature and evaporation, promising to alleviate Egypt's water stress. However, given the ambitious new capital with a large green river in the desert (Fig3), Egypt's water crisis could be deemed as self-inflicted, arising from mismanagement and misplaced strategic priorities.

Fig3: The World's Largest Artificial River In The Dessert In The Making.