Water and Politics

 The Grand Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam (GERD) is envisioned as the nation's hope to lift the nation's chronic underachievement and improve its Human Development Index ( rank 175, 2023 ) (Fig1). Given , Ethiopia has been perennially on the brink of another food disaster resulting from exponential population growth (expected to  double to 205 million  by 2050), habitat degradation and climate change. Fig1:  Ethiopia's HDI's trend The GERD symbolises Ethiopia's  'rebirth' , aligning with Africa Rising's narrative and  independence from the neo-colonial masters . Despite being one of the world's poorest countries ( Akamo, 2022 ), Ethiopia successfully constructed the dam without the World Bank's or the West's assistance. The capital was internally raised, where even low-wage public sector workers participated by purchasing bonds, embodying a collective nationalistic sentiment ( Mbaku, 2020 ). This sentiment is exemplified by a  virtual campaig...

The GERD In September 2023, the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) marked a significant milestone with the completion of its reservoir filling. The journey was filled with hurdles; the  podcast  below will provide insights into why the GERD construction was sentimentally charged and perceived as an existential threat despite the GERD's potential benefits ( Kahsay et al., 2015 ).   The GERD aids Sudan by filtering out 100 million cubic meters of silt, addressing the underdeveloped drainage system in that region ( Assefa, 2020 ). Supporting this, Woldeyohannes et al. ( 2017 ) assert that the dam’s sedimentary management reduces flooding by approximately 40 km, safeguarding  300,000 people 's livelihood in that region as of 19 September 2020. Econometric models suggest that the dam will contribute to Sudan’s prosperity over the period 2020–2060 through reduced economic damage, increased crop output and value-added across the economy by $27 billion - $29 billion, c...

  Fig1:  Nile Basin Transboundary Political Conflict between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt Timeline In this 3-series post on transboundary water politics, we will examine Ethiopia's success in constructing its new identity around the notions of entitlement.  I won't dive into the history of the Anglo-Egyptian treaties of 1902, 1929, and 1959 ( Tekuya, 2018 ) that established Egyptian and Sudanese hydrogemony over the Nile before African independence (Fig1). Suffice it to say that these historical agreements excluded Ethiopia's interests despite 86% of the Nile's waters originating from Ethiopia (Fig2) ( Swain, 2011 ). The dispute arose over chronology  (Fig3)  vs hydrography ( Wolf, 1999 ), with  Egypt and Sudan  clinging to historical treaties while Ethiopia contested their rights. Fig2:  River Share according to Colonial Treaties Fig3:  Chronology(Egypt) v.s. Hydrography(Ethiopia) Contestation in Principles and Guidelines Fig4: G...