Post 4 - The Ethiopian Dream

 The Grand Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam (GERD) is envisioned as the nation's hope to lift the nation's chronic underachievement and improve its Human Development Index (rank 175, 2023) (Fig1). Given , Ethiopia has been perennially on the brink of another food disaster resulting from exponential population growth (expected to double to 205 million by 2050), habitat degradation and climate change.

Fig1: Ethiopia's HDI's trend

The GERD symbolises Ethiopia's 'rebirth', aligning with Africa Rising's narrative and independence from the neo-colonial masters. Despite being one of the world's poorest countries (Akamo, 2022), Ethiopia successfully constructed the dam without the World Bank's or the West's assistance. The capital was internally raised, where even low-wage public sector workers participated by purchasing bonds, embodying a collective nationalistic sentiment (Mbaku, 2020). This sentiment is exemplified by a virtual campaign supporting the project and through the widespread use of the hashtag #it’smydam. 

#it'smydam

The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic government leverages the GERD to foster a 'national consensus,' uniting 80 ethnolinguistic groups under a shared vision of national development. This holds significant importance for Ethiopia, given its history of enduring years of internal tribal conflicts (Abdelhady et al., 2015). The collaboration of dam workers from diverse ethnic backgrounds fosters understanding and comradeship. 

Strategically, the Ethiopian government planned to become the renewable energy battery of East Africa, generating up to 6,000 MW of clean energy and enabling 100% of the nation's electrification by 2025 (Woldegebriel, 2015; Matthews & Vivoda, 2023). When fully operational, surplus energy could be sold for 2 million euros daily to East African nations connected to Ethiopia's power grid, bringing light to 450 million living without it (Tadesse, 2020). It also promises to bolster food security by mitigating the vulnerabilities posed by seasonal rainfall patterns (Fig2) (Zwaan et al., 2018). Farmers would no longer be limited to a single crop per year, thus increasing food production and promoting both internal consumption and exports (Verhoeven, 2013), thereby uplifting impoverished communities. Beyond its economic and social impact, it consolidates the political elite’s power and solidifies Ethiopia as a future hydro-hegemonic powerhouse. 

Fig2: Projected Hydropower from GERD

However, GERD was blamed for displacing about 20,000 people or approximately 5,391 households, from impoverished Gumuz communities. These communities of "farmers, fisher-people, and hunters" (Taye et al., 2016) were relocated away from the river. Findings claimed the displacement has further denied the Gumuz tribes water access and essential services like education and health, increasing the violence and mass killings in that area. Nevertheless, many argue that the energy and economic growth generated outweigh some environmental damage and preservation of traditional lifestyles, especially given the number of displaced pales compared to 1.3 million in the China Three Gorges Dam (Jackson & Sleigh, 2000). 

In the grand vision, the GERD aims to catalyse a sustainable energy-water-food-ecosystem nexus (Fig3) for the region on the macro scale. However, to reap maximum benefits, the nation needs to practise good governance, which we will look into in the next post.

Fig3: Energy-water-food nexus